An escalation of clashes between both is very likely to affect the traffic of oil over the Bab-el-Mandab and Suez Canal, key sea lines of communications. Who: Iran and the US will almost certainly be involved in future clashes over the seizure of sea drones. Countries surrounding the Red Sea, such as Eritrea, could witness Iran try to re-establish a naval base in Assab, allowing Iran to position itself in the global economy.

Iran’s expansion of economic ties facilitates infrastructure production, creating greater regional integration in countries like Eritrea or Somalia. Iran’s naval presence in the Red Sea indicates its increased interest in trade, allowing the Iranian regime to broaden its economic ties outside its traditional ‘sphere of influence’ in the Middle East. Iran has bilateral ties with East African countries, such as Eritrea, which has the strategically important ports of Massawa and Assab. The closure of the strait can cause oil prices to rise and security to be compromised. Įconomic: The Bab-el-Mandab Strait is the world’s third busiest maritime oil transit checkpoint. Iran’s efforts to expand its military footprint are expected to expand around these waterways, provoking the US and other international rivals, such as the UK. Iran’s recent encounter with the US in the Red Sea indicates that threats toward closing the Suez Canal or the Bab al-Mandab chokepoints are possible. Historically, the Iranian regime has fractured international shipping by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic in response to US naval activity. Military activity in the Red Sea can cause these waterways to close, eliminating open sea lines of communication and access to ports, adding to transit time and cost. Military: Iranian maritime activity in the Red Sea threatens Egypt's Suez Canal and the strait between Yemen and Djibouti known as the Bab-el-Mandab. More naval ships in the Red Sea will allow Iran to reach ports where they can buy and exchange food, oil, and weapons, avoiding international sanctions. As Iranian naval forces demonstrate their capabilities through the recent drone seizure, it is expected that Iran will deploy more naval ships in order to monitor the sea movement of its adversaries, like the US. Iran has previously been accused of providing arms to Yemen’s Houthi rebels but has denied such claims, despite evidence of an Iranian ship anchored for years in the Red Sea near Yemen. It has used the Red Sea as a shipping route for illicit weapons to its proxies in the Levant. Geopolitical: Since 2011, Iran has routinely sent naval forces to the Red Sea as part of its Syrian war effort. Security cooperation among those who have an interest in the Red Sea, like the US and UAE, will almost certainly be needed to protect maritime traffic. Iranian military activity in the Red Sea will very likely affect the shipping industry, almost certainly raising oil prices, and will likely raise suspicion of illicit smuggling of weapons in Iranian ships.

A greater Iranian presence in the Red Sea will very likely lead to sustaining the proxy wars in Yemen and Syria, which will likely lead to expanding Iranian influence along the East African coast and the Arabian Peninsula. Iran will very likely use its naval position to increase aggression against its adversaries, like the US, almost certainly using its attempted US drone seizure as a reason to deploy more naval vessels. This event comes after the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) attempted to capture a Saildrone Explorer USV in the Persian Gulf on August 29. Iranian media reported that the seized sea drones were endangering international waterways, but the US Navy said the sea drones were unarmed. On September 2, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) ship, Jamaran, seized two US sea drones in the Red Sea before returning them to the US Navy’s 5th Fleet.

Iranian frigate jamaran